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The Treasury Bond Market Illustrated

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By Arman Bristed

The market for U.S. Treasury Bonds is receiving more attention recently. The value of the dollar tends to drop when long-term Treasury bonds decline in price. The March 2009 report of the Fed's Flow of Funds shows that there is $14.5 trillion outstanding in mortgage-backed securities, agency securities and Treasury securities.
Foreign countries are heavily invested in U.S. debt as an investment with China being the first holder of U.S. bonds. More than a few economists believe that if China stops buying them, the U.S. economy would face ever increasing interest rates to make U.S. debt more attractive.

With the consequence of huge deficits and out of control government spending, the real value of U.S. Treasury securities are the focus of increased attention.
China wants their assets safe and if any question of U.S. credibility would ensue, the pressure to liquidate a portion of their U.S. assets in self-survival mode may seem a likely option.

If China and other nations refuse to buy U.S. debt, the only alternative is for the U.S. Treasury to purchase Treasury securities which would dramatically increase the money supply. To attract investors, interest rates would need to rise. As is the case, when the Fed starts buying Treasury bills habitually, inflation ensues. The Fed in the mid-2009 scenario has used much of the money to buy over $500 billion in mortgage backed securities.

Normally, high interest rates is associated with the central bank as the government attempts to ward off inflationary pressures that come with an expanding money supply. Yet, there is less demand for Treasuries and the only other viable option is to have higher interest rates to entice buyer demand. Unfortunately, higher interest rates would only further decline the economy. As the result of higher interest rates, a greater burden is placed on the citizen which results in an escalation in mortgage defaults and more consumer debt.

The current administration's record-breaking plans to fund the deficit and the Fed printing out dollar bills to buy the debt is staggering. The U.S. Treasury is pushing the yield on bonds even higher and the floodgates are open. Some economists are wondering who is going to be purchasing these bonds.

Inflationary deficit spending can destroy a nation. The renowned late economist, Milton Friedman warned that "Inflation is a disease, a dangerous and sometimes fatal disease that, if not checked in time, can destroy a society."


China remains the number one holder of U.S. debt. Milton Friedman warned, "The Fate of a Country Is Inseparable From the Fate of Its Currency." Climbing interest rates and inflation scare an already fragile domestic and global economy. As such, the debt onslaught is boosting bond yields as the appetite for money to finance the government's budget deficit shows no sign of dieting. - 23309

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